They may not admit it. Let me rephrase that, they will NEVER admit it, but the phantom five (as referred to in a less than favorable manner in the recent "Philadelphia Magazine" article) hear a clock ticking. This is not unlike the clock that former Phillies owner Ruly Carpenter heard sometime at the end of 1980 or early 1981. With the impending baseball strike looming which would forever change the face of Major League Baseball, salaries skyrocketing in the new era of free agency, and having finally won that elusive World Championship, there was nothing left for Ruly Carpenter to accomplish as an owner of a professional baseball team. So a few days into spring training 1981, Carpenter tearfully announced that he was selling the franchise that was in his family for almost half a century. They say that history repeats itself. Sadly, there hasn't been another World Championship for the Phillies since 1980, a baseball strike won't be a serious problem until the new collective bargaining agreement rears its ugly head in a few years. So the only certainty here are the salaries of our boys of summer, which are INCREASING faster than gas prices!
With a winning team (and say what you want about the Phillies, but they have posted a winning record in seven of the last eight seasons) comes good players, and their future salaries that will follow. This scenario hasn't really affected the Phillies, that is until now. Baseball fans have seen time and time again the Kansas City's (Carlos Beltran), Minnesota's (Tori Hunter) and Montreal's (there's too many to list!!!!) not being able to afford their high priced stars, and were either forced to trade them or let them leave via free agency. Make no mistake, the Phillies are in a higher market than those previously mentioned teams, but with the intense contract talks between Ryan Howard, and the rather pompous mud slinging of Cole Hammels, the Phillies may find themselves in a quandry when the time comes for these young stars to receive their increased pay. This doesn't even include Jimmy Rollins (signed through 2010 with an option for 2011), Pat Burrell (see "Bring Back The Bat"), Brad Lidge (signed through this season), Greg Dobbs (this year), and Jayson Werth (you guessed it). Lost in the mess is the recently incompetant Brett Myers', whose contract is up in 2009 (don't even go there with Adam Eaton).
One can imagine that Burrell and Lidge will both command somewhere around the $30 million mark if not higher during their contract discussions with the Phillies as well as other teams. With his 2007 MVP season, Rollins has already outplayed his contract, and if you thought the arbitration hearings with Howard were ugly THIS Spring, just wait until 2010 if he still doesn't have a long-term deal (YIKES!) Dobbs and Werth were the two most underrated players on the 2007 Division Champions, and the team will probably make a decision on Myers based on his performance during the next two years. Which brings us to that clock again.
It's no secret that 1. This is probably THE best all-around nucleus in the long history of The Philadelphia Phillies 2. To let this group of guys leave town without EVER winning a World Series title would probably be the biggest travesty in the history of the franchise (and we've had MANY travesties). And last but not least, the blatantly obvious weak link of this 2008 Phillies squad 3. Their starting pitching (other than anyone not named Hammels) has been lackluster to say the least. This leaves the Phillies brass with several options as the trade dealine approches in July and the rosters get expanded on September 1st.
1. Go for all the marbles and WIN NOW! Now we all know that there is a better chance of Connie Mack coming back from the dead than this scenario coming to fruition. But consider the facts: There (with maybe the exception of Boston) is no clear cut favorite in the American or National League this season. For the most part teams have improved, with only a handful of teams performing worse than they did last year (Colorado, San Diego, Yankees, Mets (YES!), Detroit). Everyone knows that the Phillies everyday lineup is among the best in the major leagues. Why not get the trophy girl so she can ride with you in your Ferrari? As we all know in baseball, you may NEVER get another chance. I know, I know, it's easier said than done. In order to upgrade your starters so the bullpen doesn't burn out in July, you need either good players in your organization to offer other teams, or good prospects. The Phillies have a little of both, but not that much. Enough to mortgage your future? With the exception of Cole Hammels and (GULP!) Larry Christenson, can you name another Phillies pitching prospect in the last 35 years that went on to perform well for the Phillies for more than three years? In saying that, do you risk trading away a Josh Outman, Joe Savery, Antonio Bastardo, or a Carlos Carrasco for a 42 year-old Greg Maddux at the deadline? I would say no. Chances are that the Phillies would probably say no as well and it's understandable. However, we all know what Kyle Lohse did for this team last year when he was acquired from the Reds......and I'm way ahead of you: Kris Benson is not the answer.
2. Skip the trade possibilities, and call up these "studs" with the hope that they can deliver when it counts: Relying on rookies in the middle of a pennant race is not always the best idea (see September 2001: David Coggin, Nelson Figueroa, Brandon Duckworth). That is a very tall order to ask of a young kid. Not everyone is a Marty Bystrom or even Kyle Kendrick. In saying that, the Phillies are probably going to be competitive for a number of years, so is any time really the right time to see what these guys are made of?
History has shown that the Phillies are willing to spend money, they just don't always spend it wisely. Let's fast forward to the off season of 2008: Do you "Bring Back The Bat" as well as your closer who seems to have been found new life after several uneven years? Do you break the bank and sign Howard and Hammels to long-term deals? Do you go after a stud free agent pitcher to help balance this uneven rotation? Decisions, decisions, decisions. Over the next few years, the Phillies brass clearly has some important moves to make. Decisions that, for better or for worse, could set this frnachise back 10 to 20 years in a positive or negative way. 1984 was a long time ago, but some of those choices that were made during that era robbed us of baseball in our childhood, and it took 17 years (not counting 1993) to get them back. That's too long for the best fans in the world to have to endure again! Will history repeat itself? Or will Montgomery and company do the right thing? Break the bank? or for God's sake sell the team to somebody who will so we can FINALLY have that parade? (I'm so sick of talking about that damn parade and we haven't even had one for 25 years!) Do they really want to have it on their conscience that they dismantled this potential dynasty? It is safe to say that baseball would probably NEVER recover in this town. It took almost 20 years, and fans will NOT come back next time. That is a very tall order for the legacy of this ownership to carry. Despite the fact that they have made 10 times the amount of what the club was sold for back in 1981, you would have to think that sometimes, pride triumphs over greed. We've seen what happened to the Boston Red Sox. Wouldn't that be nice here? Will this year be any different than years past? You've let us down time and time and time again. If you're on the fence Mr. Montgomery, I'm sure you guys still talk to Ruly............right?
Tick...Tock...Tick....Tock
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
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