After yesterday's humilaition at the hands of Tim Redding(?)and the streaking (yes, I said streaking) Washington Nationals, the Philadelphia Phillies are slowly but surely losing momentum in this free-for-all we call the National League East. With emerging MVP candidate Carlos Delgado's two-run, game-winning homer against the now Ben Sheets less Brewers, the Mets now hold a two game lead on our fighting Phils. There are twenty four games left in this season, but the Phillies MUST, I repeat MUST take the remaining two games from Washington, and MUST take two out of three from the Mets this weekend at Shea to even have a hope of staying alive in this race, or by Sunday this thing could be all but over.
Whether the Phillies make the playoffs or not this year (and right now, I still have to go with the Mets) this will be a different Phillies team in 2009. Some faces will definately be gone, some may be traded, and some may be gone who shouldn't go. Let's weigh out some of the scenarios:
Ryan Howard- I understand that this is a very controversial topic. Let's be honest, Phillies brass will obviously try to find reasons not to give Howard a pay increase for 2009. Numbers are numbers however, and expect Howard to be awarded somewhere in the range of $14 million for next year alone in the arbitration hearings. This will not thrill the Phillies one bit. Casual fans will think I'm crazy, but don't be surprised if the Phillies attempt to trade Howard for front line starting pitching or major prospects. It is almost defniate that Howard will be leaving Philadelphia after 2010 and the Phillies will get nothing for him in return if time is running out (see Scott Rolen, Curt Schilling). Plus, Howard wants way too much money for a slugger who will surpass 200 strikeouts in a year and whose defense is a constant detriment to the team. If the Phillies can find a first baseman who strikes out way less and is a clutch hitter who plays great defense, they should at least try to acquire one. Make no mistake, Howard is not entirely to blame for the Phillies silent bats this summer, but a shakeup is needed if there are no playoffs for this team. To move Howard would be to try to improve the team, and the Phillies aren't going be confused with the Tampa Bay Rays any time soon.
Jimmy Rollins- There has been speculation that for the Phillies to get to the next level, one of the big three will have to go (Utley, Rollins, or Howard). Jimmy Rollins' performance this season on and off the field has been inexcusable and disheartening at the same time. His "anything goes" approach at the plate is getting more and more aggravating as the years go by. The fact that a leadoff hitter is not patient at the plate is mind boggling. We won't even get into the whole "front runners" comment, but rumors have it that Rollins is not happy with his current contract. If that is indeed the case, he is not exactly endearing himself to the brass to where they would want to renegotiate with him. Stories and scuttlebut surround the off-season, and don't be shocked if there was more to Rollins behavior and performance this season than meets the eye. Time will tell, but unless some team blows the Phillies out of the water with a package that may include Rollins, expect him to be back.
Pedro Feliz- Truth be told, Feliz has offensively been a letdown. That being said, I would still take him every day of the year over Wes Helms. Phillies fans have not seen that kind of defense at third base since Scott Rolen, and Feliz has a penchant for the big hit when he has been healthy more than Utley or Rollins this summer. Feliz is owed around $4 million for 2009, so chances are he will be back regarding some crazy package deal that never seems to fall in the lap of the Phillies anyway.
Pat Burrell- In recent weeks Burrell has struggled, but until then was one of the more consistent bats in an inconsistent lineup. Burrell has his holes, but has more of an upside than downside. He will be 32 in October and probably has a few good years left. He loves playing in Philly, and only two players in the history of this long suffering franchise have hit more home runs than he has. With his power numbers still strong, that has to count for something. If this team ever miraculously wins a World Series, it would be nice for Burrell to be part of that. He has earned the right to stay here, and he probably would take a hometown discount to do so. With the Phillies high on prospect Greg Golson and with Jayson Werth coming into his own in right field, Burrell may be expendable. Another possibility is trading Ryan Howard and moving Burrell to first base. Burrel's return is probably 50/50, but let's hope they "BRING BACK THE BAT".
Carlos Ruiz/Chris Coste- To be fair to Ruiz, he is praised for handling the pitching staff the way he does. As far as offensively, he has been the weakest link in the Phillies lineup all year. More was expected out of Ruiz after a solid regular season and also in the NLDS. If the offense was running on all eight cylinders, people wouldn't even care that Ruiz is hitting .221. Fact of the matter is, the offense isn't consistent, and people now start to point fingers. Coste is the ultimate team guy and a great success story. However, Ruiz's shortcomings with the bat have pushed Coste into the everyday lineup more times than the Phillies would have hoped, and as a result he is getting exposed. Coste may return in 2009 because he can hit, and is capable of playing third base and first base in a limited role of the bench. Ruiz is younger and a solid defensive catcher, so that may make him more tradeable. Chances are that prospect Lou Marson will not be ready come opening day 2009, so expect the Phils to sign a stop gap catcher (Benito Santiago-1996) while Marson is the backup.
Brett Myers- This may be the biggest question mark of them all. To say that Myers is the team's second half MVP is not a stretch to say the least. Myers has been nothing short of spectacular since his demotion to the minor leagues this summer, and he is solidifying himself as a dominant number two starter in the big leagues. At the same time, Myers performance during the last several weeks could also have the Phillies using him as trade bait in the off-season. Myers is slated to make $12 million next year and has long expressed his desire to be a reliever. With Brad Lidge locked up for the next three years, Myers will not get the chance to close. Due to his newfound success as a starter, it is possible that Myers may want to continue starting. We'll have to wait and see on this one. With Kyle Kendrick increasingly inconsistent and Carlos Carrasco not quite ready for the bigs yet, I would say the chances are maybe more than 50/50 that he will return, unless the Phils can acquire a better starter, or just want to give Myers and the team a fresh start.
Adam Eaton- The fact that Eaton couldn't get ANYBODY out in the minor leagues is a total disgrace to himself, the fans, and the organization. It's not that the post-Giles regime doesn't spend money, they don't spend it wisely. There was no bidding war for Eaton. The Phils simply gave him a three year deal at the price of around $25 million dollars. That is why he will be on this team next year. The Phillies wouldn't even cut So Taguchi, so you know they won't dump Eaton. And forget the fact about trading him anywhere and taking on half of his salary. If Eaton had any character, he should retire, or donate a portion of his salary to charity. I know that is easier said than done, but I would love to make millions of dollars and do my job less than half assed. All the money in the world can't take the place of embarrassment.
Kyle Kendrick- Maybe someday, Kyle Kendrick will be a consistent major league pitcher. However, that time is not now, and he is hurting the team more than he has helped them since the All-Star break. His ERA is now 5.08, and he will probably be bumped in the rotation on Sunday in place of Cole Hammels at Shea Stadium. Kendrick was a godsend last summer, and the Phillies wouldn't have made the playoffs without his help. In saying this, he is not helping them now, and with Carlos Carrasco waiting in the wings, don't be surprised if the Phils shop him around this offseason. Kendrick's control is way too shaky to make him a bullpen pitcher, and the Phils can't afford to keep putting lackluster pitching out on the mound when you are fighting for your playoff lives in September.
Jamie Moyer- Moyer was supposed to spend the final month of 2006 with the Phillies, then call it a career. He was so rejuvanated that he returned to the team in 2007, helped the Phillies clinch the NL East on the final day of the season, mentored young pitchers like Hammels and Kendrick, and has been the healthiest and most consistent starter in 2008. Veterans like Moyer don't just grow on trees, and at 45 years of age he is probably older than some trees. Moyer not only plans to keep pitching in 2009, he may plan to pitch after that season as well. Only problem is, the Phillies might not want him back. It is a valid point, but Moyer has shown no signs of slowing down this year and until he proves otherwise, he should be allowed to finish his career here. As much as I knock the Phillies, they have a better chance of winning a title than Seattle, where Moyer still makes his home and where Phillies GM Pat Gillick will likely wind up in 2009. The quote by assistant (and likely future) GM Ruben Amaro Jr. concerning the possible chances of Moyer not returning next year were untimely and classless. A classy act like Moyer should be entitled to have his affairs kept private until the off season. Odds are probably 50/50 he returns.
So Taguchi- Taguchi is hitting .198 and his fielding has been even more horrendous. The fact that he is even still on this team is an insult to the Philly fans as well as the players on the team. Odds are almost %100 that he will not be back. I said almost because the Phillies are never one to respect their fan base, they just take our money, no questions asked.
Geoff Jenkins- Jenkins has been a major disapointment, but as we all know, the Phillies will not eat salary and Jenkins is owed $6.5 million in 2009. Unless the Phillies try to trade him (and their probably won't be many takers for a 34 year-old former slugger with slow bat speed), expect Jenkins to be back, but in a limited role due to the emergence of Jayson Werth as an everyday player.
The Phillies Bullpen- The bullpen has probably been the most consistent part of the team from the start of the season up until the last week. Relief pitchers are spotty (see Rheal Cormier) and are known to have great years followed by horrendous ones. Chad Durbin has been the most consistent reliever who is not named Brad Lidge all season, but now is showing signs of leaking oil. There is no way to tell if his shoulder can take the pounding of another year in the pen. Durbin's upsode is that he is relatively young. Ryan Madson has pitched well more times than not, but the "deer in the headlights" look when he enters the eight inning is hit or miss. The Phillies acquired Scott Eyre as a lefthanded specialist to compliment J.C. Romero (and also because his contract will expire soon). Eyre has been solid so far, and the Phils would be wise to bring him back in the same role next season, though they may decide to go with J.A. Haap instead. Rudy Seanez has pitched well at times, but he is injury prone and nearing 40 at season's end. Not a good combination for a reliever (see Tom Gordon). Clay Condrey has pitched well in mop up situations, but his spot next year will probably be vacated by the more expensive and less reliable Adam Eaton. In closing, most of these guys will be back than not, but expect some replacements for the older veterans.
One thing is for certain, the Phillies will be a different team than the one you are looking at for the final weeks of 2008. For better or worse remains to be seen. The team has been a consistent 80 plus-win team for almost a decade now. Management will be the key factor as to whether this team has reached the pinnacle of their ability, or will now begin the downward spiral that permeated the 1990's. With rumors of Mark Cuban clamoring to buy the Cubs, and with the estimated $800 million dollar value of the Mets after moving into their new stadium in 2009, the Phillies brass and players have their work cut out for the them, not just for the next few years, but for the next few decades.
Im sure however, that Phillies management is right on top of things, is up to the challenge and everything will be fine.............................(Insert joke here)
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