Thursday, October 23, 2008

Phils win opener in Tampa Bay, but take it one game at a time.

You've heard the stats over the last week: 10 out of the last 11 winners of game one of The World Series have gone on to win the fall classic. That bodes very well for The Philadelphia Phillies, who won the inaugural contest in Tampa Bay 3-2 in exciting, and sometimes gut-wrenching fashion. Despite the game one victory, there were several problems that the Phillies will have to address if they are to capture the first title in Philadelphia since 1983.

The Good:

Starter Cole Hamels is quickly cementing himself as one of the best Phillies post season pitchers of all time, allowing seven baserunners in seven innings and surrendering two runs in last night's victory. His post season ERA is now 1.55

Chase Utley became the 34th player in World Series history to homer in his first World Series at bat. His two-run blast set the tone for game one, and he added another hit later in the game.

Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge: When these guys pitch as effectively as they did last night, you are pretty much looking at a seven inning game. Madson is throwing even harder this post season, and the fact that Lidge could set the Rays down in order despite a seven day layoff is very encouraging.

Taking game one was VITAL. If the Rays beat Hamels, it shifts the confidence level towards them. 63 out of 103 teams who have won game one have won the series. That is just a number, but this morning I would rather be the Phillies than the Rays. Also lost in the mix is the momentum factor. Even though the last two teams with an extended layoff (2006 Tigers, 2007 Corraddo Rockies) exited rather quietly in the World Series, the previous three teams (2001 Diamondbacks, 2002 Angels, 2005 White Sox) had an equally long layoff and won the World Series.

The Bad:

After Cole Hamels, the talent in the Phillies rotation drops significantly. Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, and Joe Blanton must step up if they are to put the Rays away.

The Phillies were 0 for 13 with runners in scoring position. This included Ryan Howard going 0 for 4 and striking out three times with runners in scoring position. Howard was also atrocious in the field again, only being saved by a pickoff of Carlos Pena after his error allowed Pena to reach first base. You can't give a championship caliber team like Tampa Bay 4 outs in an inning. Eventually, they will make you pay for it. The layoff seemed to hurt Jimmy Rollins as well. Rollins probably had the worst offensive game by a hitter in recent memory in a World Series, going 0 for 5 with 2 strikeouts and stranding 5 runners on base. My prediction was that these two would have an excellent series. But then again, everybody seems to be picking the Rays to win as well. I hope that the latter is wrong. Howard and Rollins MUST have a stronger series if the Phillies are to win.

I'm sure this series is far from over and technically, there are six games left to go. Keep in mind that the Rays also lost game one of the ALCS against the Red Sox, and then reeled off three wins in a row. They are a resilient team who will bounce back. Also keep in the mind that the Phillies won the opener of the 1983 World Series, then promptly dropped four in a row from the Orioles. At the end of the day, I'd still rather be in the Phillies position right now. Their business like approach assures you that they know there are three more wins to go. They've proven everybody wrong all year. They have to do it again tonight as the "experts" are predicting an uproar in the Rays offense in game two.

Last night however, the Phillies made what always seemed impossible one step closer to becoming possible.

No comments: